Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? (2024)

FAQs

Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? ›

The 4% rule entails withdrawing up to 4% of your retirement in the first year, and subsequently withdrawing based on inflation. Some risks of the 4% rule include whims of the market, life expectancy, and changing tax rates. The rule may not hold up today, and other withdrawal strategies may work better for your needs.

Retirees who are depending on their savings to fund essential expenses would want to have a conservative approach. However, those who have can withstand more market fluctuations may have more flexibility with withdrawal rates. For those retirees, the 4% rule likely will provide an outdated recommendation.

A better approach could be to customize your portfolio withdrawal rates based on individual factors. A slew of recent studies try do that—tailoring spending estimates to things like a person's financial flexibility, health, and ownership of guaranteed-income products such as annuities.

Thanks to higher interest rates and bond yields, it is likely safe for new retirees to spend 4% of their nest eggs in their first year of retirement and then to adjust that amount for inflation in subsequent years, according to a new analysis from Morningstar released Monday.

The 4% rule is a widely known guideline for retirement spending that says you can safely withdraw 4% of your savings the first year, then adjust withdrawals for inflation annually. This rule aims to provide retirees high confidence that they won't outlive their savings for 30 years.

Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) data estimates that just 3.2% of Americans have $1 million or more in their retirement accounts. Here's how much most Americans have saved and what you can do to boost your retirement savings. Don't miss out: Click to see our list of best high-yield savings accounts.

According to EBRI estimates based on the latest Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 3.2% of retirees have over $1 million in their retirement accounts, while just 0.1% have $5 million or more.

For example, if you have retirement savings of $1 million, the 4% rule says that you can safely withdraw $40,000 per year during the first year — increasing this number for inflation each subsequent year — without running out of money within the next 30 years. Of course, the 4% rule isn't perfect.

Average Monthly Retirement Income

According to data from the BLS, average 2022 incomes after taxes were as follows for older households: 65-74 years: $63,187 per year or $5,266 per month. 75 and older: $47,928 per year or $3,994 per month.

The $1,000 per month rule is a guideline to estimate retirement savings based on your desired monthly income. For every $240,000 you set aside, you can receive $1,000 a month if you withdraw 5% each year. This simple rule is a good starting point, but you should consider factors like inflation for long-term planning.

What is the golden rule for retirement? ›

The golden rule of saving 15% of your pre-tax income for retirement serves as a starting point, but individual circ*mstances and factors must also be considered.

Does a 401(k) recover after a recession? Your 401(k) can recover after a recession if you give it enough time to regain losses. Historically, the stock market has always recovered from recessions to eventually reach new highs. In fact, your 401(k) may begin to recover before the recession ends.

As a rule of thumb, many retirees use 4% as their safe withdrawal rate—the so-called 4% rule. The 4% rule states that you withdraw no more than 4% of your starting balance each year in retirement, adjusted each year for inflation.

The most dramatic pitfall may be that the 4% rule fails to account for the portfolio's actual performance year after year. Because the clients don't consider their actual investment earnings during retirement, it's possible that they could end up withdrawing much more, or much less, than they safely should have.

The biggest problem with the 4% rule is that life is almost never as simple as we'd all hope. There may be some years in retirement that you need more than the rule allows and some years that you need less. This could be caused by moving locations, health problems, or other life changes.

Key Points. The so-called 4% rule is just one among many retirement income strategies. Given the complexity of retirement, it's essential to find an approach that meets your unique needs. Other smart income strategies include varying withdrawal rates, adjusting your asset allocation, and modifying your spending.

Looking to retire on $4 million? If you leave work at 61, the average retirement age as of the latest Gallup data, you'll have more than enough to see you through to a life expectancy of 90 or even 100. Across 29 years, $4 million could equate to a generous $11,494 a month.

Safe Withdrawal Rate

Using our portfolio of $400,000 and the 4% withdrawal rate, you could withdraw $16,000 annually from your retirement accounts and expect your money to last for at least 30 years. If, say, your Social Security checks are $2,000 monthly, you'd have a combined annual income in retirement of $40,000.