How risky is to invest in Costco Wholesale? COST - Macroaxis (2024)

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Stock.Costco Wholesale Corp

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COSTStockUSD729.187.321.01%

We consider Costco Wholesale very steady. Costco Wholesale Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0453, which signifies that the company had a 0.0453% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Costco Wholesale Corp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Costco Wholesale's Downside Deviation of 1.64, risk adjusted performance of 0.0545, and Mean Deviation of 0.8272 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0606%. Key indicators related to Costco Wholesale's volatility include:

30 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance Of Distress

Low

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost neglects market trends

Costco Wholesale Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Costco daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Costco's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Costco Wholesale volatility.

Costco

ESG Sustainability

While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, Costco Wholesale's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Costco Wholesale's managers and investors.

Environment Score

Governance Score

Social Score

Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Costco Wholesale can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Costco Wholesale at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Costco stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Costco Wholesale's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving against Costco Stock

0.47IH IhumanIncPairCorr
0.42VDKB Vodka Brands CorpPairCorr

Costco Wholesale Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Costco Wholesale's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Costco stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Costco stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Costco Wholesale's beta of 0.87 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Costco Wholesale stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Costco Wholesale Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of -2.91 and kurtosis of 17.03. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Costco Wholesale's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Costco Wholesale's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

3 Months Beta |Analyze Costco Wholesale Corp Demand Trend

Check current 90 days Costco Wholesale correlation with market (NYSE Composite)

Costco Beta

0.87

Costco standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

1.34

It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Costco Wholesale's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Costco Wholesale's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in costco stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Costco Wholesale.

Using Costco Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Costco Wholesale grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Costco Wholesale at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Costco Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Costco Wholesale's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Costco Wholesale will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Costco Wholesale's PUT expiring on 2024-05-03

Profit

Costco Wholesale Price At Expiration

Current Costco Wholesale Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $580.0-0.01324.0E-462024-05-030.0 - 0.360.36View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $595.0-8.0E-41.0E-412024-05-030.0 - 0.40.01View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $600.0-8.0E-41.0E-4772024-05-030.0 - 0.010.01View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $605.0-8.0E-41.0E-412024-05-030.0 - 0.170.01View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $610.0-9.0E-41.0E-4202024-05-030.0 - 0.280.01View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $620.0-0.00965.0E-4272024-05-030.01 - 0.320.01View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $625.0-0.00182.0E-4192024-05-030.01 - 0.030.09View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $630.0-0.00192.0E-4542024-05-030.02 - 0.030.02View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $635.0-0.0022.0E-4272024-05-030.01 - 0.030.04View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $640.0-0.00293.0E-4612024-05-030.03 - 0.040.03View

Put

2024-05-03 PUT at $645.0-0.00474.0E-4812024-05-030.02 - 0.10.05View

View All Costco Wholesale Options

Costco Wholesale Corp Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Costco Wholesale stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Costco Wholesale's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Costco Wholesale's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Costco Wholesale's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Costco Wholesale's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Costco Wholesale's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Costco Wholesale's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Costco Wholesale's to be redeemed at a future date.

Transformation

  • Average Price
  • Median Price
  • Typical Price
  • Weighted Close Price

The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Costco Wholesale Corp Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.

Costco Wholesale Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Costco Wholesale has a beta of 0.8721 suggesting Costco Wholesale Corp market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Costco Wholesale is expected to follow.

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Costco Wholesale or Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Costco Wholesale's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Costco stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.

Costco Wholesale Corp has an alpha of 0.026, implying that it can generate a 0.026 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).

Returns

Costco Wholesale's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how costco stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Costco Wholesale Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Costco Wholesale Stock Risk Measures

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Costco Wholesale is 2207.86. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.79 and standard deviation of 1.34. The mean deviation of Costco Wholesale Corp is currently at 0.81. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62

α

Alpha over NYSE Composite0.03

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β

Beta against NYSE Composite0.87

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σ

Overall volatility1.34

Details

Ir

Information ratio 0.01

Details

Costco Wholesale Stock Return Volatility

Costco Wholesale historical daily return volatility represents how much of Costco Wholesale stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 1.3384% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6294% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.

Performance

Timeline

About Costco Wholesale Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Costco Wholesale or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Costco Wholesale may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Costco's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Costco Wholesale and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Costco Wholesale fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.

Please read more on our technical analysis page.

Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Market Cap6.7B6.3B

Costco Wholesale's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Costco Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Costco Wholesale's price varies over time.

3 ways to utilize Costco Wholesale's volatility to invest better

Higher Costco Wholesale's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Costco Wholesale Corp stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Costco Wholesale Corp stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:

  • Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Costco Wholesale Corp investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
  • Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Costco Wholesale's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
  • Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Costco Wholesale's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.

Remember it's essential to remember that stock volatility is just one of many factors to consider when making investment decisions, and it should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

Costco Wholesale Investment Opportunity

Costco Wholesale Corp has a volatility of 1.34 and is 2.13 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 11percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Costco Wholesale. You can use Costco Wholesale Corp to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Costco Wholesale to be traded at $802.1 in 90 days.

Very weak diversification

The correlation between Costco Wholesale Corp and NYA is 0.41 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Costco Wholesale Corp and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

View Details

Costco Wholesale Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Costco Wholesale's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Costco Wholesale's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Costco Wholesale stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Risk Adjusted Performance0.0545
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.119
Mean Deviation0.8272
Semi Deviation1.47
Downside Deviation1.64
Coefficient Of Variation1268.53
Standard Deviation1.33

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with hom*ogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Costco Wholesale Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.

Alphabet vs. Costco Wholesale
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Bank of America vs. Costco Wholesale
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GM vs. Costco Wholesale
Ford vs. Costco Wholesale

The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Costco Wholesale as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Costco Wholesale's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Costco Wholesale's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Costco Wholesale Corp.

When determining whether Costco Wholesale Corp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Costco Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Costco Wholesale Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Costco Wholesale Corp Stock:

How To Invest In Costco

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Is Costco Stock a good investment?

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What is Costco Wholesale's Net Worth?

Details

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Largest Consumer Defensive Companies

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Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Costco Wholesale Corp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.

You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Costco Stock analysis

When running Costco Wholesale's price analysis, check to measure Costco Wholesale's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Costco Wholesale is operating at the current time. Most of Costco Wholesale's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Costco Wholesale's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Costco Wholesale's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Costco Wholesale to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Costco Wholesale's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Costco Wholesale. If investors know Costco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Costco Wholesale listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

0.188

Dividend Share

4.08

Earnings Share

15.31

Revenue Per Share

560.607

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.057

The market value of Costco Wholesale Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Costco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Costco Wholesale's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Costco Wholesale's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Costco Wholesale's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Costco Wholesale's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

AltmanZ Score

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PiotroskiF Score

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BeneishM Score

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FinancialAnalysis

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Buy or SellAdvice

Details

EarningsProjections

Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between Costco Wholesale's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Costco Wholesale is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Costco Wholesale's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

How risky is to invest in Costco Wholesale?  COST - Macroaxis (2024)

FAQs

How risky is to invest in Costco Wholesale? COST - Macroaxis? ›

Costco Wholesale Corp has relatively low volatility with skewness of -2.52 and kurtosis of 14.12. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market.

Is Costco Wholesale a good investment? ›

If you're seeking an industry leader with fantastic brand strength, steady earnings growth, and solid (if unpredictable) dividend income, then look no further than Costco stock. It's a great business that's trading at a decent price today. Demitri Kalogeropoulos has positions in Costco Wholesale.

Is Costco a good stock to invest in? ›

Costco has 1.27% upside potential, based on the analysts' average price target. Is COST a Buy, Sell or Hold? Costco has a conensus rating of Moderate Buy which is based on 16 buy ratings, 6 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings.

How much will Costco stock be worth in 10 years? ›

Costco stock price stood at $777.90

According to the latest long-term forecast, Costco price will hit $800 by the middle of 2024 and then $1000 by the middle of 2025. Costco will rise to $1100 within the year of 2026, $1300 in 2027, $1500 in 2028, $1600 in 2029, $1700 in 2030, $1800 in 2031 and $2000 in 2034.

How well is Costco performing financially? ›

Net income for the first 24 weeks was $3.33 billion, $7.49 per diluted share, compared to $2.83 billion, $6.37 per diluted share, last year. For the four-week reporting month of February, ended March 3, 2024, the Company reported net sales of $18.21 billion, an increase of 6.9 percent from $17.04 billion last year.

Is Costco a safe stock? ›

Shares are trading near a record high valuation, and so it's reasonable to wonder whether you'll get good returns from buying the stock right now. Despite those challenges, Costco stock should be a good addition to most investors' portfolios.

Why is Costco a good long term investment? ›

COST also boasts an average earnings surprise of 2.6%. Costco is also cash rich. The company has generated cash flow growth of 14.1%, and is expected to report cash flow expansion of 10.4% in 2024.

Will Costco stock reach $1 000? ›

But I believe that Costco's P/E ratio could actually contract because of how expensive it is right now, and this creates downside risk for investors. Don't expect the $1,000 mark to be met in 2024. And for investors who are drawn to the business, it's best to practice patience and wait for a better valuation.

Is Costco a good long-term stock? ›

Costco stock is up over 500% over the past decade. The retailer's business model has proven a powerful one and it is still expanding, often due to high customer demand. There's never a "good" time to buy Costco, but that doesn't mean long-term growth investors shouldn't buy it.

Is Costco a long-term investment? ›

A generous dividend policy sets Costco apart from many of its peers. Those payouts make a serious difference for long-term shareholders. That 10-year return of 712% would shrink to 546% if you didn't sign up for dividend reinvestments. The compound annual return falls from 23.3% to 20.5%.

Who holds the most Costco stock? ›

According to the latest TipRanks data, approximately 53.22% of Costco (COST) stock is held by retail investors. Vanguard owns the most shares of Costco (COST).

What is the highest Costco stock has ever been? ›

The all-time high Costco stock closing price was 787.19 on May 10, 2024. The Costco 52-week high stock price is 789.48, which is 1.5% above the current share price. The Costco 52-week low stock price is 476.75, which is 38.7% below the current share price. The average Costco stock price for the last 52 weeks is 620.06.

What is the future of Costco stock? ›

Stock Price Forecast

The 26 analysts with 12-month price forecasts for Costco stock have an average target of 721.19, with a low estimate of 585 and a high estimate of 870. The average target predicts a decrease of -7.29% from the current stock price of 777.90.

Will Costco do well in a recession? ›

Because the company is reliant on membership fees and caters to a higher-income customer base, the business is also much more recession-resistant than the typical retailer.

What are the pros of investing in Costco? ›

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has trounced the market over almost any period you can check. It has a differentiated operating model that breeds loyalty and high sales and is resilient during challenging times.

How much debt is Costco in? ›

Total debt on the balance sheet as of February 2024 : $9.43 B. According to Costco's latest financial reports the company's total debt is $9.43 B. A company's total debt is the sum of all current and non-current debts.

Is Costco Wholesale profitable? ›

Costco reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, but revenue growth was lower than analysts had anticipated. Net income came in at $1.74 billion, or $3.92 per diluted share, compared to the $1.62 billion or $3.62 per share that analysts estimated.

What is Costco's most profitable item? ›

Toilet paper

Yes, that's right! Costco's best-selling item is its Kirkland Signature Bath Tissue. It sells more than a billion rolls every year, bringing in over $400 million dollars in revenue. Costco's toilet paper is thicker and more absorbent than most other brands.

Is Costco financially stable? ›

Costco Wholesale has the Financial Strength Rank of 8. It shows strong financial strength and is unlikely to fall into distressed situations.

How much do you have to shop at Costco to make it worth it? ›

But if your annual spend regularly tops $3,000, you're better off with the Executive Membership. Every additional dollar you spend after $3,000 will bring your annual fee further and further below $60 and end up saving you money in the long run.

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